Friday, January 10, 2025
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Market Comment
Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Thursday, U.S. stock markets were closed in observance of a national day of mourning for President Jimmy Carter.

The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield eased slightly to 4.689% from an 8-1/2-month high of 4.730% marked on Wednesday.

The closely-watched U.S. official jobs report will be released on Friday. Addition of non-farm payrolls in December is expected at 160,000, and the jobless rate may rise to 4.3%.

In Europe, the DAX 40 dipped 0.06%, while the CAC 40 rose 0.51%, and the FTSE 100 was up 0.83%.

U.S. WTI crude-oil futures rebounded 0.60 dollars to 73.92 dollars a barrel.

Gold price gained 8 dollars to 2,670 dollars an ounce, extending its rally to a third session.


Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar stayed firm against other major currencies, with the dollar index rising to 109.16.

EUR/USD dropped 18 pips to 1.0300. The Eurozone's retail sales rose 0.1% month on month in November (as expected).

Germany's industrial production grew 1.5% month on month in November (vs +0.8% expected, -1.0% in October).

USD/JPY declined 27 pips to 158.08.

GBP/USD marked an intraday low of 1.2238, the lowest level since November 2023, before ending the session at 1.2308. U.K. gilt prices slumped as concern about the country's finances mounted.

AUD/USD was down 19 pips to 0.6196.

USD/CHF climbed 15 pips to 0.9123, and USD/CAD was up 16 pips to 1.4388.

Bitcoin extended its slump to a third session, losing over 2% to $92,500.


Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, USD/JPY edged up to 158.19. Japan's household spending fell 0.4% year-on-year in November, compared with an expected decline of 0.6%.

Meanwhile, EUR/USD and GBP/USD both remained subdued, at 1.0303 and 1.2306 respectively.

Gold climbed to 2,674 dollars.

Bitcoin rebounded slightly to 93,580 dollars.


Expected Today

France's industrial production is expected to grow 0.2% month-on-month in November.

In the U.S., nonfarm payrolls are estimated to increase by 160,000 in December, while jobless rate is expected to edge up to 4.3%. Also, the Michigan consumer sentiment index is anticipated to climb to 75 in January.

Canada's employment is expected to increase by 11,000 in December, while jobless rate is anticipated to be unchanged at 6.8%.
ForexLast%1D%YTD
EUR/USD 1.0281 -0.17 -0.70
USD/JPY 158.33 0.12 0.96
GBP/USD 1.2266 -0.31 -1.96
CommoditiesLast%1D%YTD
Gold 2,677.6900 0.28 2.05
Silver 30.2660 0.47 4.82
Crude Oil 74.3400 0.57 3.67
EUR/USD Intraday: watch 1.0280. Next
Pivot: 1.0315

Our preference: short positions below 1.0315 with targets at 1.0280 & 1.0260 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.0315 look for further upside with 1.0340 & 1.0355 as targets.

Comment: a break below 1.0280 would trigger a drop towards 1.0260.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
EUR/JPY intraday: the upside prevails as long as 162.26 is support Previous  | Next
162.26 is our pivot point.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 162.26 is support.

Alternative scenario: below 162.26, expect 161.40 and 160.89.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is positive and above its signal line. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 162.86 and 162.82).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/USD Intraday: under pressure. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.2320

Our preference: short positions below 1.2320 with targets at 1.2235 & 1.2210 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.2320 look for further upside with 1.2360 & 1.2390 as targets.

Comment: the upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 1.2320.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/JPY intraday: the upside prevails as long as 193.89 is support Previous  | Next
Our pivot point stands at 193.89.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 193.89 is support.

Alternative scenario: below 193.89, expect 192.96 and 192.40.

Comment: the RSI is above 50. The MACD is positive and above its signal line. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 194.57 and 194.44).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/JPY Intraday: continuation of the rebound. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 157.90

Our preference: long positions above 157.90 with targets at 158.80 & 159.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 157.90 look for further downside with 157.60 & 157.35 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a rebound.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/CAD Intraday: further advance. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.4385

Our preference: long positions above 1.4385 with targets at 1.4425 & 1.4450 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.4385 look for further downside with 1.4365 & 1.4340 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Crude Oil (WTI) (G5) Intraday: aim @ 74.90. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 73.85

Our preference: long positions above 73.85 with targets at 74.50 & 74.90 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 73.85 look for further downside with 73.50 & 73.15 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Brent (ICE) (H5) Intraday: further advance. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 76.85

Our preference: long positions above 76.85 with targets at 77.50 & 77.90 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 76.85 look for further downside with 76.35 & 75.95 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Dow Jones (CME) (H5) Intraday: key resistance at 42930.00. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 42930.00

Our preference: short positions below 42930.00 with targets at 42590.00 & 42380.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 42930.00 look for further upside with 43040.00 & 43180.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Gold Intraday: intraday support around 2662.00. Previous 
Pivot: 2662.00

Our preference: long positions above 2662.00 with targets at 2678.00 & 2690.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 2662.00 look for further downside with 2655.00 & 2645.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is around its neutrality area at 50%

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
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