Thursday, December 5, 2024
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Market Comment
Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Wednesday, the major U.S. indices gained traction, with the S&P 500 rising 36 points (+0.61%) to 6,086 and the Nasdaq 100 jumping 263 points (+1.24%) to 21,492, both reaching fresh record highs. The Dow Jones climbed 308 points (+0.69%) to 45,014.

The technology sector showed continued strength, leading the market higher, while the energy and materials sectors underperformed the most.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted that the economy's resilience supports a cautious stance on rate cuts, while underscoring the importance of maintaining the central bank's independence from political pressures.

Regarding U.S. economic data, the ADP employment increased 146,000 in November, below 180,000 anticipated, the ISM services purchasing managers index dropped to 52.1, below 56.7 expected. Also, factory orders edged up by 0.2% month-on-month in October, below 0.3% anticipated.

On the equity front, Amazon.com (AMZN), an e-commerce and cloud computing giant, rose 2.21% after reports of record-breaking Cyber Monday sales boosted confidence in its retail and logistics segments.

Salesforce.com (CRM), a developer of business software, jumped 11% after quarterly sales beat estimates due to strong demand for its AI powered platform.

Marvell Technology (MRVL), a developer and producer of semiconductors, soared 23.19% after current quarter sales guidance topped expectations.

JetBlue Airways (JBLU), an airline, rose by 8.25% following an upward revision of its revenue guidance, attributed to record holiday travel demand.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slipped 4 basis points to 4.182%.

The major European indices were mixed. The DAX 40 rose 1.08% and the CAC 40 gained 0.66%, while the FTSE 100 fell 0.28%.

In the commodities market, gold gained $6 (+0.24%) to $2,650. Crude oil futures (WTI) retreated $1.40 (-2.00%) to $68.54 ahead of OPEC+ decision on output. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a draw of 5.07 million barrels in crude-oil stockpiles last week, more than 1 million barrels expected.


Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar index was little changed at 106.34. Later today, the U.S. weekly initial jobless claims are estimated at 214,000.

EUR/USD edged up 2 pips to 1.0511. The eurozone's producer prices index dropped 3.2% year-on-year in October, compared with an expected decline of 3.5%.

GBP/USD added 29 pips to 1.2699.

USD/JPY jumped 98 pips to 150.57, while USD/CHF fell 18 pips to 0.8845.

AUD/USD lost 47 pips to 0.6436, the lowest level last seen in early August, as weaker-than-expected third quarter Australian economic growth spurred rate-cut expectations on Australia's central bank.

USD/CAD was up 6 pips to 1.4073.

Bitcoin rose $2,634 (+2.74%) to $98,718. U.S. president-elect Donald Trump nominated Paul Atkins, who is recognized for his supportive stance on digital assets, as the new chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Meanwhile, Ethereum jumped $258 (+7.15%) to $3,873.


Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, AUD/USD remain subdued at 0.6430. Australia's trade surplus totaled 5.95 billion Australian dollars, above 5.50 billion Australian dollars estimated.

Meanwhile, EUR/USD climbed to 1.0522 and GBP/USD edged up to 1.2705.

USD/JPY eased to 150.30.

Gold slipped to $2,647.

Bitcoin rallied to an all-time high, reaching $103,360.


Expected Today

The eurozone's retail sales are estimated to be down 0.4% month-on-month in October.

Germany's factory orders are anticipated to drop 2.1% month-on-month in October.

France's industrial production is expected to grow 0.2% month-on-month in October.

In the U.K., S&P Global construction purchasing managers index is expected to slip to 53.7 in November.

In the U.S., weekly initial jobless claims are estimated at 214,000, while trade deficit for October is expected at 83 billion dollars
ForexLast%1D%YTD
EUR/USD 1.0527 0.16 -4.61
USD/JPY 149.67 -0.62 6.10
GBP/USD 1.2717 0.12 -0.09
CommoditiesLast%1D%YTD
Gold 2,647.6500 -0.08 28.36
Silver 31.2263 -0.20 31.50
Crude Oil 68.5000 -0.06 -4.48
EUR/USD Intraday: the bias remains bullish. Next
Pivot: 1.0505

Our preference: long positions above 1.0505 with targets at 1.0540 & 1.0555 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.0505 look for further downside with 1.0490 & 1.0475 as targets.

Comment: the RSI advocates for further advance.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
EUR/JPY intraday: eye 156.98 Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 158.67.

Our preference: eye 156.98.

Alternative scenario: the upside breakout of 158.67, would call for 159.26 and 159.61.

Comment: the RSI is below 50. The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the pair is trading under its 20 period moving average (158.18) but above its 50 period moving average (158.09).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/USD Intraday: the upside prevails. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.2670

Our preference: long positions above 1.2670 with targets at 1.2720 & 1.2745 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.2670 look for further downside with 1.2650 & 1.2630 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a new upleg.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/JPY intraday: target 189.50 Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 191.69.

Our preference: target 189.50.

Alternative scenario: the upside breakout of 191.69, would call for 192.46 and 192.92.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The MACD must penetrate its zero line to expect further downside. Moreover, the price is below its 20 period moving average (191.05) but above its 50 period moving average (190.86).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/JPY Intraday: under pressure. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 150.75

Our preference: short positions below 150.75 with targets at 149.20 & 148.65 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 150.75 look for further upside with 151.20 & 151.60 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/CAD Intraday: bullish bias above 1.4045. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.4045

Our preference: long positions above 1.4045 with targets at 1.4085 & 1.4105 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.4045 look for further downside with 1.4025 & 1.4005 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Crude Oil (WTI) (F5) Intraday: towards 67.75. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 69.10

Our preference: short positions below 69.10 with targets at 68.20 & 67.75 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 69.10 look for further upside with 69.50 & 69.90 as targets.

Comment: the RSI shows downside momentum.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Brent (ICE) (G5) Intraday: 71.50 expected. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 72.85

Our preference: short positions below 72.85 with targets at 72.00 & 71.50 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 72.85 look for further upside with 73.15 & 73.55 as targets.

Comment: the RSI shows downside momentum.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Dow Jones (CME) (Z4) Intraday: further upside. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 44870.00

Our preference: long positions above 44870.00 with targets at 45170.00 & 45400.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 44870.00 look for further downside with 44680.00 & 44530.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI shows upside momentum.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Gold Intraday: aim @ 2666.00. Previous 
Pivot: 2634.00

Our preference: long positions above 2634.00 with targets at 2666.00 & 2673.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 2634.00 look for further downside with 2621.00 & 2612.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a bounce.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
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