Tuesday, November 12, 2024
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Market Comment
Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Monday, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (up 304 points or 0.69% to 44,293) and the S&P 500 (up 5 points or 0.10% to 6,001) closed at record-high levels.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 dipped 10 points (-0.05%) to 21,106.

The Financial stock sector gained the most, with Goldman Sachs (GS) rising 2.22%, Bank of America (BAC) up 2.11%, and Citigroup (C) up 1.70%.

Tesla (TSLA) bounced a further 8.96%, extending its rally to a fifth session.

Crypto-related stocks surged alongside Bitcoin as investors were convinced that Donald Trump's administration will be friendly to the crypto sector. MARA Holdings (MARA) soared 29.92%, MicroStrategy (MSTR) jumped 25.73%, and Coinbase Global (COIN) rose 19.76%.

AbbVie (ABBV) tumbled 12.57% after the drug company reported disappointing trial results for its schizophrenia drug. In contrast, Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) jumped 10.49%.

The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 3 basis points to 4.306%.

European stocks rebounded, with the DAX 40 rising 1.21%, the CAC 40 up 1.20%, and the FTSE 100 up 0.65%.

Oil prices remained under pressure as investors did not expect China's latest stimulus package could drive the country's oil demand growth. U.S. WTI crude-oil futures sank a further $2.34 (-3.32%) to $68.04 a barrel.

Gold price retreated a further $65 (-2.43%) to $2,619 an ounce, a one-month low.


Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar remained firm against other major currencies, as investors expected policies taken by the incoming Trump administration would support the greenback. The dollar index advanced to 105.49.

EUR/USD fell 62 pips to 1.0656, a seven-month low.

USD/JPY jumped 105 pips to 153.68.

GBP/USD fell 57 pips to 1.2864.

AUD/USD slipped 9 pips to 0.6571.

USD/CHF gained 53 pips to 0.8806, and USD/CAD added 17 pips to 1.3925.

Bitcoin continued its record-breaking rally, charging over 9% to levels above $88,000.


Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, AUD/USD fell to 0.6556. Australia's Westpac consumer confidence index rose to 94.6in November, above 89.5 expected, and NAB business confidence index climbed to 5 in October, above 2 estimated.

Meanwhile, EUR/USD remained under pressure at 1.0650 and GBP/USD was down to 1.2855.

USD/JPY was steady at 153.60.

Gold remained subdued at $2,622.

Bitcoin eased to $87,850.


Expected Today

Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index is expected to drop to 12.9 in November, while final reading of October inflation rate is estimated to be up 2.0% year-on-year.

U.K. jobless rate is expected to edge up to 4.1% for July-September period.

In the U.S., the NFIB business optimism index is anticipated to climb to 91.6 in October.
ForexLast%1D%YTD
EUR/USD 1.0633 -0.20 -3.65
USD/JPY 153.79 0.05 9.02
GBP/USD 1.2825 -0.34 0.75
CommoditiesLast%1D%YTD
Gold 2,607.3300 -0.49 26.41
Silver 30.3300 -1.14 27.65
Crude Oil 67.9400 -0.15 -5.26
EUR/USD Intraday: watch 1.0625. Next
Pivot: 1.0675

Our preference: short positions below 1.0675 with targets at 1.0625 & 1.0600 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.0675 look for further upside with 1.0720 & 1.0750 as targets.

Comment: a break below 1.0625 would trigger a drop towards 1.0600.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
EUR/JPY intraday: rebound towards 164.83 Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 163.11.

Our preference: rebound towards 164.83.

Alternative scenario: below 163.11, expect 162.49 and 162.12.

Comment: the RSI is below 50. The MACD is negative and above its signal line. The configuration is mixed. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 163.78 and 163.98).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/USD Intraday: the downside prevails. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.2880

Our preference: short positions below 1.2880 with targets at 1.2800 & 1.2780 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.2880 look for further upside with 1.2925 & 1.2960 as targets.

Comment: the immediate trend remains down and the momentum is strong.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/JPY intraday: below its lower Bollinger band Previous  | Next
Our pivot point stands at 198.38.

Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 198.38 is resistance.

Alternative scenario: above 198.38, look for 199.30 and 199.85.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is negative and below its signal line. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 197.77 and 197.97). Finally, the GBP/JPY is trading below its lower Bollinger band (standing at 197.54).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/JPY Intraday: bullish bias above 153.95. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 153.95

Our preference: short positions below 153.95 with targets at 153.20 & 152.90 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 153.95 look for further upside with 154.35 & 154.70 as targets.

Comment: as long as the resistance at 153.95 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 153.20 remains high.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/CAD Intraday: the upside prevails. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.3920

Our preference: long positions above 1.3920 with targets at 1.3965 & 1.3980 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.3920 look for further downside with 1.3895 & 1.3875 as targets.

Comment: the RSI advocates for further advance.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Crude Oil (WTI) (Z4) Intraday: towards 66.70. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 68.80

Our preference: short positions below 68.80 with targets at 67.60 & 66.70 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 68.80 look for further upside with 69.40 & 70.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Brent (ICE) (F5) Intraday: watch 70.30. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 72.50

Our preference: short positions below 72.50 with targets at 71.10 & 70.30 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 72.50 look for further upside with 73.10 & 73.60 as targets.

Comment: the RSI advocates for further downside.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Dow Jones (CME) (Z4) Intraday: key resistance at 44480.00. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 44480.00

Our preference: short positions below 44480.00 with targets at 44300.00 & 44200.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 44480.00 look for further upside with 44625.00 & 44750.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a drop.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Gold Intraday: under pressure. Previous 
Pivot: 2632.00

Our preference: short positions below 2632.00 with targets at 2595.00 & 2580.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 2632.00 look for further upside with 2646.00 & 2658.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI has broken down its 30 level.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
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