Wednesday, October 23, 2024
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Market Comment
Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Tuesday, U.S. stocks were little changed at close, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average edging down 6 points (-0.02%) to 42,924, and the S&P 500 down 2 points (-0.05%) to 5,851.

The Nasdaq 100 added 22 points (+0.11%) to 20,383.

Meanwhile the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield continued its recent uptrend, climbing 2 basis points to 4.204%, a three-month high.

Consumer discretionary and energy stock sectors gained the most, while industrial and basic materials sectors gave the worst performance.

Microsoft (MSFT) rose 2.08%, becoming the best-performing tech giant during the session.

Philip Morris International (PM) surged 10.47%, becoming the biggest gainer within the S&P 500. The tobacco giant raised its full-year earnings forecast.

General Motors (GM) bounced 9.81%. The giant car-maker's third-quarter earnings exceeded market expectations.

On the other hand, GE Aerospace (GE) plunged 9.05%, Lockheed Martin (LMT) lost 6.12%, and 3M (MMM) dipped 2.31% after posting quarterly results.

Regarding U.S. economic data, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index improved to -14 in October (vs -20 expected, -21 in September).

European stocks also closed lower, with the DAX 40 falling 0.2%, the CAC 40 down 0.01%, and the FTSE 100 down 0.14%.

U.S. WTI crude-oil futures rebounded further, gaining $1.53 (+2.20%) to $72.09 a barrel.

Gold price held up well, rising 1% to an all-time high of $2,748 an ounce.


Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar rallied further against other major currencies, as investors expected the Federal Reserve to be less aggressive in cutting interest rates. The dollar index advanced to 104.08.

EUR/USD dropped 17 pips to 1.0798.

USD/JPY climbed 27 pips to 151.10.

GBP/USD dipped 3 pips to 1.2981, while AUD/USD added 22 pips to 0.6680.

USD/CHF eased 8 pips to 0.8653.

USD/CAD was down 12 pips to 1.3819. The Bank of Canada is expected to cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%.

Bitcoin was stable at levels around $67,700.


Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD and GBP/USD were both little changed, at 1.0795 and 1.2985 respectively.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY advanced to 151.70.

Gold eased to $2,739.

Bitcoin slipped to $67,060.


Expected Today

The eurozone's consumer confidence index is anticipated to improve to -12.3 in October.

In the U.S., existing home sales are estimated to drop 1.6% month-on-month in September.

The Bank of Canada is expected to lower its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%.
ForexLast%1D%YTD
EUR/USD 1.0803 0.06 -2.11
USD/JPY 152.10 0.69 7.83
GBP/USD 1.2987 0.03 2.03
CommoditiesLast%1D%YTD
Gold 2,751.7900 0.12 33.41
Silver 34.7976 -0.09 46.45
Crude Oil 71.6400 -0.14 -0.10
EUR/USD Intraday: key resistance at 1.0815. Next
Pivot: 1.0815

Our preference: short positions below 1.0815 with targets at 1.0785 & 1.0770 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.0815 look for further upside with 1.0835 & 1.0855 as targets.

Comment: the upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 1.0815.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
EUR/JPY intraday: the RSI is overbought Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 163.28.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 163.28 is support.

Alternative scenario: below 163.28, expect 162.53 and 162.09.

Comment: the RSI is above 70. It could mean either that the pair is in a lasting uptrend or just overbought and therefore bound to correct (look for bearish divergence in this case). The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 163.36 and 163.30).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/USD Intraday: caution. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.2995

Our preference: short positions below 1.2995 with targets at 1.2960 & 1.2940 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.2995 look for further upside with 1.3015 & 1.3035 as targets.

Comment: intraday technical indicators are mixed and call for caution.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/JPY intraday: the RSI is overbought Previous  | Next
Our pivot point stands at 196.22.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 196.22 is support.

Alternative scenario: the downside breakout of 196.22 would call for 195.23 and 194.65.

Comment: the RSI is trading above 70. This could mean that either the pair is in a lasting uptrend or just overbought and that therefore a correction could shape (look for bearish divergence in this case). The MACD is positive and above its signal line. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 196.39 and 196.13).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/JPY Intraday: towards 152.40. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 151.50

Our preference: long positions above 151.50 with targets at 152.40 & 152.75 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 151.50 look for further downside with 151.10 & 150.60 as targets.

Comment: the break above 151.50 is a positive signal that has opened a path to 152.40.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/CAD Intraday: watch 1.3810. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.3835

Our preference: short positions below 1.3835 with targets at 1.3810 & 1.3795 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.3835 look for further upside with 1.3850 & 1.3865 as targets.

Comment: a break below 1.3810 would trigger a drop towards 1.3795.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Crude Oil (WTI) (Z4) Intraday: expect 72.70. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 70.60

Our preference: long positions above 70.60 with targets at 72.00 & 72.70 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 70.60 look for further downside with 70.00 & 69.40 as targets.

Comment: the RSI advocates for further advance.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Brent (ICE) (Z4) Intraday: bullish bias above 74.70. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 74.70

Our preference: long positions above 74.70 with targets at 76.30 & 76.90 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 74.70 look for further downside with 74.25 & 73.50 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Dow Jones (CME) (Z4) Intraday: key resistance at 43280.00. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 43280.00

Our preference: short positions below 43280.00 with targets at 42790.00 & 42600.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 43280.00 look for further upside with 43470.00 & 43580.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Gold Intraday: further advance. Previous 
Pivot: 2737.00

Our preference: long positions above 2737.00 with targets at 2757.00 & 2765.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 2737.00 look for further downside with 2727.00 & 2721.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
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