Friday, October 18, 2024
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Market Comment
Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average marked a record-high closing level for the third time within the week, as it rose 161 points (+0.37%) to 43,239.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 dipped one point (-0.02%) to 5,841, while the Nasdaq 100 edged up 16 points (+0.08%) to 20,190.

Financial and energy stock sectors performed the best, while utilities, real estate and healthcare sectors lost the most.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) jumped 9.79% on better-than-expected quarterly results and raised full-year revenue growth forecast.

Blackstone (BX), an asset manager, rallied 6.27%, and Travelers Companies (TRV), an insurer, jumped 9.00%. Both stocks closed at record-high levels.

Uber Technologies (UBER) slid 2.44%, while Expedia (EXPE) gained 4.75%. The Financial Times reported that Uber may consider acquiring Expedia.

CSX Corp (CSX), a freight transportation firm, fell 6.71% on lower-than-expected third-quarter earnings.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rebounded 8 basis points to 4.096%.

Regarding U.S. economic data, retail sales increased 0.4% month on month in September (vs +0.2% expected), while industrial production declined 0.3% (vs +0.1% expected).

The latest number of initial jobless claims fell to 241,000 (vs 269,000 expected).

European stocks closed higher, with the DAX 40 rising 0.77%, the CAC 40 up 1.22%, and the FTSE 100 up 0.67%.

U.S. WTI crude-oil futures added $0.28 (+0.40%) to $70.67 a barrel, halting a four-session decline.

Gold price rebounded for a third session, chalking an all-time high of $2,696 an ounce.


Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar kept strengthening against other major currencies, with the dollar index advancing to 103.79.

EUR/USD slid 32 pips to 1.0829, posting a four-session losing streak. As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its key interest rates by 25 basis points. The central bank pointed out that the region's economy is worsening.

USD/JPY regained the 150.00 level for the first time since August, as it gained 57 pips to 150.19.

GBP/USD added 17 pips to 1.3007, and AUD/USD climbed 29 pips to 0.6695.

USD/CHF edged up 5 pips to 0.8659, and USD/CAD rose 48 pips to 1.3798.

Gold price rebounded for a third session, chalking an all-time high of $2,696 an ounce.

Bitcoin managed to hold up at levels above $67,000.


Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, both Japan's Nikkei 225 Index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index were stable trading less than 1% higher.

USD/CNH (offshore yuan) eased slightly to 7.1310. China's data showed that growth in it gross domestic product slowed to 4.6% year on year in the third quarter (vs 4.5% expected, 4.7% in the prior quarter).

USD/JPY dipped back below 150.00. Japan's data showed that the core inflation rate slowed to 2.4% year on year in September from 2.8% in August.

EUR/USD edged up to 1.0838, and GBP/USD traded higher to 1.3021.

Gold price chalked another intraday all-time-high at $2,712 an ounce.

Bitcoin challenged the $68,000 level again.


Expected Today

U.K. retail sales are expected to decline 0.4% month on month in September.

U.S. housing starts are expected to increase 1.8% month on month in September, while building permits may decline 0.1%.
ForexLast%1D%YTD
EUR/USD 1.0841 0.09 -1.77
USD/JPY 149.83 -0.25 6.22
GBP/USD 1.3027 0.13 2.34
CommoditiesLast%1D%YTD
Gold 2,711.7900 0.71 31.48
Silver 32.1350 1.39 35.25
Crude Oil 70.9500 0.40 -1.06
EUR/USD Intraday: turning up. Next
Pivot: 1.0820

Our preference: long positions above 1.0820 with targets at 1.0855 & 1.0870 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.0820 look for further downside with 1.0805 & 1.0790 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a new upleg.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
EUR/JPY intraday: eye 161.13 Previous  | Next
163.13 is our pivot point.

Our preference: eye 161.13.

Alternative scenario: above 163.13, look for 163.88 and 164.32.

Comment: the RSI is below 50. The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the pair is trading under its 20 period moving average (162.59) but above its 50 period moving average (162.48).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/USD Intraday: the upside prevails. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.2995

Our preference: long positions above 1.2995 with targets at 1.3035 & 1.3065 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.2995 look for further downside with 1.2975 & 1.2955 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/JPY intraday: as long as 194.39 is support look for 197.19 Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 194.39.

Our preference: as long as 194.39 is support look for 197.19.

Alternative scenario: below 194.39, expect 193.34 and 192.72.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The pair could retrace. Moreover, the pair is trading under its 20 period moving average (195.36) but above its 50 period moving average (194.87).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/JPY Intraday: turning down. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 150.30

Our preference: short positions below 150.30 with targets at 149.50 & 149.20 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 150.30 look for further upside with 150.50 & 150.75 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a drop.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/CAD Intraday: bullish bias above 1.3775. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.3775

Our preference: long positions above 1.3775 with targets at 1.3815 & 1.3830 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.3775 look for further downside with 1.3760 & 1.3745 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Crude Oil (WTI) (X4) Intraday: target 72.10. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 70.00

Our preference: long positions above 70.00 with targets at 72.10 & 72.70 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 70.00 look for further downside with 69.45 & 69.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a bounce.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Brent (ICE) (Z4) Intraday: rebound expected. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 73.90

Our preference: long positions above 73.90 with targets at 75.60 & 76.20 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 73.90 look for further downside with 73.30 & 72.45 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a bounce.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Dow Jones (CME) (Z4) Intraday: aim @ 43660.00. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 43350.00

Our preference: long positions above 43350.00 with targets at 43660.00 & 43780.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 43350.00 look for further downside with 43250.00 & 43170.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Gold Intraday: the upside prevails. Previous 
Pivot: 2688.00

Our preference: long positions above 2688.00 with targets at 2724.00 & 2742.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 2688.00 look for further downside with 2682.00 & 2673.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI shows upside momentum.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
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