Friday, September 27, 2024
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Market Comment
Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Thursday, U.S. stocks advanced, pushing the S&P 500 to a record-high closing level of 5,745 (up 23 points or 0.40%).

The Nasdaq 100 rose 142 points (+0.72%) to 20,115, just less than 3% away from its all-time high marked in July. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 260 points (+0.62%) to 42,175.

Basic materials and technology stock sectors gained the most.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), a copper miner, gapped up 7.45%.

Micron Technology (MU) surged 14.73%. The chip-maker reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings and gave an upbeat result guidance for the current quarter.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN) jumped 8.20% on growing market expectations that the resort and casino operator would benefit from China's latest stimulus plans.

Southwest Airlines (LUV) gained 5.42%. The company raised its third-quarter revenue guidance and announced a $2.5 billion share buy-back program.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged up one basis point to 3.791%.

Regarding U.S. economic data, durable goods orders were unchanged in August as compared to the prior month (vs -2.2% expected).

The latest number of initial jobless claims declined to 218,000 (vs 222,000 in the prior week).

European stocks also closed higher, with the DAX 40 rising 1.69%, the CAC 40 up 2.33%, and FTSE 100 up 0.20%.

Oil prices were pressured by a Financial Times report that Saudi Arabia will lead oil producers to increase output. U.S. WTI crude-oil futures sank a further $2.02 (-2.90%) to $67.67 a barrel.

Gold price continued its record-breaking rally, touching $2,685 an ounce.


Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar index retreated 0.35 point to 100.56.

EUR/USD rose 42 pips to 1.1174. Germany's GfK consumer confidence posted at -21.2 for October (vs -19.0 expected, -21.9 in September)

USD/JPY added 6 pips to 144.81.

GBP/USD jumped 84 pips to 1.3407.

AUD/USD gained 71 pips to 0.6893.

USD/CHF slipped 42 pips to 0.8462. As expected, the Swiss National Bank lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.00%.

USD/CAD dipped 7 pips to 1.3476.

Bitcoin rebounded alongside risk assets, bouncing over 4% to $65,865.


Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, USD/JPY advanced to 145.05. Japan's Tokyo inflation rate slowed to 2.2% year-on-year in September, below 2.4% expected.

Meanwhile, EUR/USD eased to 1.1168 and GBP/USD slipped to 1.3390.

Gold was little changed at $2,669.

Bitcoin traded lower at $64,980.


Expected Today

The eurozone's economic sentiment index is anticipated to drop to 96.0 in September.

Germany's jobless rate is estimated to be unchanged at 6.0% in September.

France's inflation rate is expected to stay at 1.8% year-on-year in September, while producer prices index is anticipated to drop 6.4% in August.

In the U.S., core personal consumption expenditures price index is expected to be up 0.2% month-on-month in August, while personal income and personal spending are both estimated to grow 0.3%. Also, wholesale inventories are anticipated to increase by 0.1% month-on-month in August.

Canada's gross domestic product is expected to be flat month-on-month in July.
ForexLast%1D%YTD
EUR/USD 1.1171 -0.04 1.22
USD/JPY 145.14 0.23 2.89
GBP/USD 1.3396 -0.14 5.24
CommoditiesLast%1D%YTD
Gold 2,672.9600 0.10 29.59
Silver 31.9380 -0.27 34.42
Crude Oil 67.5000 -0.25 -5.87
EUR/USD Intraday: consolidation in place. Next
Pivot: 1.1145

Our preference: long positions above 1.1145 with targets at 1.1190 & 1.1210 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.1145 look for further downside with 1.1125 & 1.1105 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
EUR/JPY intraday: the RSI is overbought Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 162.13.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 162.13 is support.

Alternative scenario: the downside breakout of 162.13 would call for 161.33 and 160.86.

Comment: the RSI is trading above 70. This could mean that either the pair is in a lasting uptrend or just overbought and that therefore a correction could shape (look for bearish divergence in this case). The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 162.17 and 161.72). Finally, the EUR/JPY has crossed above its upper Bollinger band (163.00).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/USD Intraday: consolidation. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.3360

Our preference: long positions above 1.3360 with targets at 1.3435 & 1.3470 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.3360 look for further downside with 1.3335 & 1.3310 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/JPY intraday: the RSI is overbought Previous  | Next
Our pivot point stands at 194.21.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 194.21 is support.

Alternative scenario: below 194.21, expect 193.08 and 192.41.

Comment: the RSI is trading above 70. This could mean that either the pair is in a lasting uptrend or just overbought and that therefore a correction could shape (look for bearish divergence in this case). The MACD is positive and above its signal line. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 194.53 and 193.94). Finally, the GBP/JPY is trading above its upper Bollinger band (standing at 195.39).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/JPY Intraday: further advance. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 144.90

Our preference: long positions above 144.90 with targets at 146.35 & 146.80 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 144.90 look for further downside with 144.50 & 144.10 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/CAD Intraday: further upside. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.3460

Our preference: long positions above 1.3460 with targets at 1.3505 & 1.3520 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.3460 look for further downside with 1.3440 & 1.3420 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a new upleg.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Crude Oil (WTI) (X4) Intraday: key resistance at 68.70. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 68.70

Our preference: short positions below 68.70 with targets at 66.30 & 65.40 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 68.70 look for further upside with 69.50 & 70.40 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Brent (ICE) (Z4) Intraday: the downside prevails. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 71.95

Our preference: short positions below 71.95 with targets at 69.70 & 69.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 71.95 look for further upside with 72.50 & 73.20 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Dow Jones (CME) (Z4) Intraday: 42780.00 expected. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 42400.00

Our preference: long positions above 42400.00 with targets at 42680.00 & 42780.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 42400.00 look for further downside with 42330.00 & 42230.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Gold Intraday: bullish bias above 2658.00. Previous 
Pivot: 2658.00

Our preference: long positions above 2658.00 with targets at 2685.00 & 2694.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 2658.00 look for further downside with 2650.00 & 2640.00 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
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