Wednesday, September 25, 2024
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Market Comment
Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Tuesday, U.S. stocks advanced further, pushing both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (up 83 points or 0.20% to 42,208) and the S&P 500 (up 14 points or 0.25% to 5,732) to record-high closing levels.

And the Nasdaq 100 rose 92 points (+0.47%) to 19,944.

Global stock and commodities markets were cheered up by a series of stimulus measures unveiled by China's central bank, including lowering banks' reserve requirement ratio and mortgage rates. Both China's CSI 300 Index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index soared over 4%.

Boosted by China's stimulus package, the basic materials stock sector became the best performer within the S&P 500.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) rose 7.93%, Southern Copper (SCCO) gained 7.22%, and Newmont (NEM) added 2.51%.

Also, U.S.-listed shares of Chinese firms posted gains, with Alibaba (BABA) rising 7.88%, JD.com (JD) up 13.91%, and Li Auto (LI) up 11.37%.

Nvidia (NVDA) jumped 3.97%, and Tesla (TSLA) was up 1.71%.

On the other hand, Visa (V) fell 5.49%. The U.S. Department of Justice sued the credit card company for alleged antitrust violations.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged lower to 3.734%.

Regarding U.S. economic data, the Conference Board consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September (vs 104.0 expected), the lowest level since April. The Richmond Fed's manufacturing index slipped to -21 in September (vs -13 expected).

European stocks also closed higher, with the DAX 40 rising 0.80%, the CAC 40 up 1.28%, and FTSE 100 up 0.28%.

U.S. WTI crude-oil futures rebounded $1.19 (+1.69%) to $71.56 a barrel.

Gold price marked an all-time high for the fourth straight session, reaching $2,664 an ounce.


Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar softened against other major currencies, dragged by soft consumer confidence data. The dollar index fell 0.48 point to 100.37.

EUR/USD rose 65 pips to 1.1177. Germany's IFO business climate index fell to 85.4 in September (vs 86.3 expected).

USD/JPY declined 42 pips to 143.18.

GBP/USD rose 63 pips to 1.3409.

AUD/USD climbed 50 pips to 0.6888. As expected, Australia's central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at 4.35%.

USD/CHF fell 42 pips to 0.8433, and USD/CAD dropped 107 pips to 1.3433.

USD/CNH sank to a 16-month low of 7.0101 after the People's Bank of China unveiled a series of stimulus measures.

Bitcoin remained buoyed, securing the level of $64,000.


Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, AUD/USD was steady at 0.6895. Australia's inflation rate slowed to 2.7% year-on-year in August, below 3.1% expected.

Meanwhile, EUR/USD advanced further to 1.1190 and GBP/USD climbed to 1.3420.

USD/JPY rebounded to 143.33.

Gold held gains at $2,662.

Bitcoin was stable at $64,528.


Expected Today

France's consumer confidence index is expected to be unchanged at 92 in September.

In the U.S., new home sales are estimated to drop 5.1% month-on-month in August.
ForexLast%1D%YTD
EUR/USD 1.1196 0.14 1.45
USD/JPY 143.30 0.06 1.59
GBP/USD 1.3421 0.07 5.44
CommoditiesLast%1D%YTD
Gold 2,661.3750 0.18 29.03
Silver 31.9500 -0.56 34.47
Crude Oil 71.2800 -0.39 -0.60
EUR/USD Intraday: target 1.1220. Next
Pivot: 1.1165

Our preference: long positions above 1.1165 with targets at 1.1220 & 1.1240 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.1165 look for further downside with 1.1145 & 1.1120 as targets.

Comment: the break above 1.1165 is a positive signal that has opened a path to 1.1220.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
EUR/JPY intraday: the upside prevails as long as 159.92 is support Previous  | Next
159.92 is our pivot point.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 159.92 is support.

Alternative scenario: below 159.92, expect 159.13 and 158.66.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 160.20 and 160.27).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/USD Intraday: further upside. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.3390

Our preference: long positions above 1.3390 with targets at 1.3435 & 1.3460 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.3390 look for further downside with 1.3370 & 1.3350 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/JPY intraday: the upside prevails as long as 191.56 is support Previous  | Next
Our pivot point stands at 191.56.

Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 191.56 is support.

Alternative scenario: below 191.56, expect 190.45 and 189.79.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is trading above both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 192.17 and 192.37).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/JPY Intraday: key resistance at 143.80. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 143.80

Our preference: short positions below 143.80 with targets at 142.70 & 142.35 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 143.80 look for further upside with 144.20 & 144.60 as targets.

Comment: as long as the resistance at 143.80 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 142.70 remains high.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/CAD Intraday: watch 1.3410. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.3460

Our preference: short positions below 1.3460 with targets at 1.3410 & 1.3380 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.3460 look for further upside with 1.3485 & 1.3510 as targets.

Comment: a break below 1.3410 would trigger a drop towards 1.3380.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Crude Oil (WTI) (X4) Intraday: key resistance at 71.95. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 71.95

Our preference: short positions below 71.95 with targets at 71.10 & 70.45 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 71.95 look for further upside with 72.40 & 73.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a drop.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Brent (ICE) (Z4) Intraday: key resistance at 74.70. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 74.70

Our preference: short positions below 74.70 with targets at 73.95 & 73.25 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 74.70 look for further upside with 75.10 & 75.60 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a drop.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Dow Jones (CME) (Z4) Intraday: bullish bias above 42400.00. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 42400.00

Our preference: long positions above 42400.00 with targets at 42650.00 & 42780.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 42400.00 look for further downside with 42250.00 & 42140.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Gold Intraday: bullish bias above 2638.00. Previous 
Pivot: 2638.00

Our preference: long positions above 2638.00 with targets at 2670.00 & 2685.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 2638.00 look for further downside with 2623.00 & 2613.00 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
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