Wednesday, September 11, 2024
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Market Comment
Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 rose 24 points (+0.45%) to 5,495, and the Nasdaq 100 gained a further 168 points (+0.90%) to 18,829, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 92 points (-0.23%) to 40,736.

Real estate and consumer discretionary stock sectors were the top performers, while energy and financial sectors lost the most.

Energy stocks were dragged by tumbling oil prices, with APA Corp (APA) falling 4.29%, Diamondback Energy (FANG) down 4.31%, and Exxon Mobil (XOM) down 3.64%.

Goldman Sachs (GS) dropped 4.39%. The Wall Street firm's chief executive indicated that trading revenue is expected to decline by 10% in the third quarter.

JP Morgan (JPM) lost 5.19%.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) sank 8.52%. The server maker announced plans to sell $1.35 billion worth of stock to fund its acquisition of Juniper Networks (JNPR).

On the other hand, Oracle (ORCL) surged 11.44% as the software firm posted better-than-expected quarterly results.

Tesla (TSLA) bounced 4.58%.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell a further 5 basis points to 3.646%.

Investors are watching closely the U.S. inflation data to be reported on Wednesday.

European stocks closed lower, with the DAX 40 dropping 0.96%, the CAC 40 down 0.24%, and the FTSE 100 down 0.78%.

Oil prices were impacted by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowering its worldwide oil demand growth forecast for 2024 and 2025. U.S. WTI crude-oil futures tumbled $2.96 (-4.31%) to $65.75 a barrel, the lowest level since May 2023.

Gold price added $16 to $2,516 an ounce.


Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar index edged higher to 101.65.

EUR/USD dipped 10 pips to 1.1024.

USD/JPY slid 85 pips to 142.32.

GBP/USD added 8 pips to 1.3080. U.K. data showed that the latest jobless rate edged down to 4.1% (vs 4.2% expected).

AUD/USD eased 8 pips to 0.6652.

USD/CHF dropped 28 pips to 0.8465, while USD/CAD advanced 50 pips to 1.3606.

Bitcoin rebounded further, gaining 0.8% to $57,540.


Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD rebounded to 1.1040 and GBP/USD climbed to 1.3095.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY dropped further to 141.75.

Gold advanced to $2,519.

Bitcoin slipped to $56,980.


Expected Today

U.K. gross domestic product and industrial production are both expected to grow 0.2% month-on-month in July.

In the U.S., core inflation rate is estimated to be unchanged at 3.2% year-on-year in August.
ForexLast%1D%YTD
EUR/USD 1.1045 0.24 0.08
USD/JPY 141.18 -0.88 0.09
GBP/USD 1.3096 0.13 2.88
CommoditiesLast%1D%YTD
Gold 2,522.1100 0.24 22.28
Silver 28.5923 0.75 20.34
Crude Oil 66.4400 1.05 -7.35
EUR/USD Intraday: rebound. Next
Pivot: 1.1015

Our preference: long positions above 1.1015 with targets at 1.1075 & 1.1090 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.1015 look for further downside with 1.1000 & 1.0985 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a rebound.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
EUR/JPY intraday: the RSI is oversold Previous  | Next
Our pivot point stands at 156.74.

Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 156.74 is resistance.

Alternative scenario: above 156.74, look for 157.58 and 158.07.

Comment: the RSI is below 30. It could either mean that the pair is in a lasting downtrend or just oversold and therefore bound to retrace (look for bullish divergence in this case). The MACD is negative and below its signal line. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 156.69 and 157.33). Finally, the EUR/JPY is trading below its lower Bollinger band (standing at 156.03).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/USD Intraday: further advance. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.3070

Our preference: long positions above 1.3070 with targets at 1.3120 & 1.3140 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.3070 look for further downside with 1.3045 & 1.3030 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a new upleg.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/JPY intraday: the RSI is oversold Previous  | Next
Our pivot point stands at 186.06.

Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 186.06 is resistance.

Alternative scenario: the upside breakout of 186.06, would call for 187.21 and 187.89.

Comment: the RSI is below 30. It could either mean that the pair is in a lasting downtrend or just oversold and therefore bound to retrace (look for bullish divergence in this case). The MACD is negative and below its signal line. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price is trading under both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 185.92 and 186.57). Finally, the GBP/JPY is trading below its lower Bollinger band (standing at 185.07).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/JPY Intraday: the downside prevails. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 142.00

Our preference: short positions below 142.00 with targets at 140.30 & 139.80 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 142.00 look for further upside with 142.40 & 142.85 as targets.

Comment: the immediate trend remains down and the momentum is strong.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/CAD Intraday: caution. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.3580

Our preference: long positions above 1.3580 with targets at 1.3625 & 1.3645 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.3580 look for further downside with 1.3560 & 1.3545 as targets.

Comment: intraday technical indicators are mixed and call for caution.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Crude Oil (WTI) (V4) Intraday: key resistance at 67.30. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 67.30

Our preference: short positions below 67.30 with targets at 65.25 & 64.40 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 67.30 look for further upside with 68.20 & 69.10 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Brent (ICE) (X4) Intraday: key resistance at 70.70. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 70.70

Our preference: short positions below 70.70 with targets at 68.70 & 68.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 70.70 look for further upside with 71.50 & 72.25 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Dow Jones (CME) (U4) Intraday: intraday support around 40500.00. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 40500.00

Our preference: long positions above 40500.00 with targets at 40830.00 & 41070.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 40500.00 look for further downside with 40300.00 & 40050.00 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Gold Intraday: further advance. Previous 
Pivot: 2501.00

Our preference: long positions above 2501.00 with targets at 2529.00 & 2540.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 2501.00 look for further downside with 2493.00 & 2485.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
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