Wednesday, June 19, 2024
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Market Comment
Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 (up 13 points or 0.25% to 5,487) and the Nasdaq 100 (up 6 points or 0.03% to 19,908) continued their record-breaking rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 56 points (+0.15%) to 38,834.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield retreated 6 basis points to 4.217%.

U.S. economic data showed that retail sales edged up 0.1% month on month in May (vs +0.2% expected), and industrial production grew 0.9% (vs +0.2% expected).

Financial, energy and industrial were the top-performing stock sectors during the session.

Nvidia (NVDA) gained 3.51% to $135.58. With a market cap of $3.34 trillion, the maker of artificial-intelligence-related chips has overtaken Microsoft (MSFT) to become the most valuable public company in the world.

Other semiconductor stocks also performed well, with Arm Holdings (ARM) jumping 8.63%, Micron Technology (MU) up 3.80%, and Qualcomm (QCOM) up 2.19%.

European stocks also closed higher. The DAX 40 rose 0.35%, the CAC 40 gained 0.76%, and the FTSE 100 was up 0.60%.

U.S. WTI crude-oil futures climbed $1.13 (1.41%) to $81.46 a barrel.

Gold price advanced $10 to $2,329 an ounce.


Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar eased against other major currencies as U.S. retail sales increased less than expected. The dollar index dipped to 105.25.

EUR/USD gained 5 pips to 1.0739. Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index climbed to 47.5 in June (vs 49.0 expected).

USD/JPY added 14 pips to 157.85.

GBP/USD edged up 3 pips to 1.2706.

AUD/USD gained 43 pips to 0.6655. As expected, Australia's central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at 4.35%.

USD/CHF fell 56 pips to 0.8837, and USD/CAD dipped 10 pips to 1.3712.

Bitcoin continued to locate a bottom, as it tested support at the $64,000 level before rebounding to $65,200.


Morning Trading

In Asian trading hours, USD/JPY stayed firm at 157.80. This morning, Japan's data showed that trade deficit widened to 1.22 trillion yen in May with exports rising 13.5% year on year.

AUD/USD advanced further to 0.6665.

EUR/USD was stable at 1.0740, and GBP/USD traded higher to 1.2715.

Gold price held well at $2,329 an ounce.

Bitcoin gained some traction trading higher to $65,450.


Expected Today

U.S. markets will be closed on Wednesday for the Juneteenth National Independence Day holiday.

U.K. inflation rate is expected to slow to 1.9% year on year in May.
ForexLast%1D%YTD
EUR/USD 1.0735 -0.03 -2.73
USD/JPY 157.85 0.00 11.90
GBP/USD 1.2706 -0.01 -0.18
CommoditiesLast%1D%YTD
Gold 2,328.0800 -0.01 12.87
Silver 29.4200 -0.34 23.76
Crude Oil 81.5200 -0.06 13.68
EUR/USD Intraday: bullish bias above 1.0725. Next
Pivot: 1.0725

Our preference: long positions above 1.0725 with targets at 1.0760 & 1.0780 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.0725 look for further downside with 1.0705 & 1.0690 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
EUR/JPY intraday: target 168.34 Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 169.96.

Our preference: target 168.34.

Alternative scenario: the upside breakout of 169.96, would call for 170.58 and 170.94.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The MACD must penetrate its zero line to expect further downside. Moreover, the pair is trading under its 20 period moving average (169.50) but above its 50 period moving average (169.46).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/USD Intraday: bullish bias above 1.2685. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.2685

Our preference: long positions above 1.2685 with targets at 1.2720 & 1.2740 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.2685 look for further downside with 1.2665 & 1.2655 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
GBP/JPY intraday: as long as 199.90 is support look for 201.97 Previous  | Next
Our pivot point is at 199.90.

Our preference: as long as 199.90 is support look for 201.97.

Alternative scenario: below 199.90, expect 199.12 and 198.66.

Comment: the RSI is above 50. The MACD is positive and below its signal line. The pair could retrace. Moreover, the pair is trading under its 20 period moving average (200.59) but above its 50 period moving average (200.50).

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/JPY Intraday: bullish bias above 157.55. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 157.55

Our preference: long positions above 157.55 with targets at 158.00 & 158.20 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 157.55 look for further downside with 157.25 & 156.90 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
USD/CAD Intraday: under pressure. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 1.3740

Our preference: short positions below 1.3740 with targets at 1.3705 & 1.3685 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.3740 look for further upside with 1.3760 & 1.3780 as targets.

Comment: as long as the resistance at 1.3740 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.3705 remains high.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Crude Oil (WTI) (Q4) Intraday: bullish bias above 80.00. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 80.00

Our preference: long positions above 80.00 with targets at 81.50 & 82.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 80.00 look for further downside with 79.30 & 78.70 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Brent (ICE) (Q4) Intraday: the upside prevails. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 84.60

Our preference: long positions above 84.60 with targets at 85.90 & 86.50 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 84.60 look for further downside with 83.80 & 83.30 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Dow Jones (CME) (U4) Intraday: intraday support around 39170.00. Previous  | Next
Pivot: 39170.00

Our preference: long positions above 39170.00 with targets at 39470.00 & 39580.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 39170.00 look for further downside with 39040.00 & 38860.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is around its neutrality area at 50%

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
Gold Intraday: intraday support around 2324.00. Previous 
Pivot: 2324.00

Our preference: long positions above 2324.00 with targets at 2335.00 & 2341.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 2324.00 look for further downside with 2317.00 & 2307.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced
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